Tuning for mid term polls

voting.jpgAlmost all the parties are readying their political machinery for the mid term elections for the Lok Sabha.  The 14th session of the people’s house seems to be aborting its five year lifetime to face the public once again. The issue threatening to cut short this Lok Sabha by one and half years is the Indo US nuclear deal. Although most of them shouting against the deal are not aware of the fundamentals their noise is gathering momentum. Especially the Left parties are finding it too hot to leave the American closeness with the Indian establishment. This has also realigned parties and rolled the ball in a different court. What the mid term election for different parties mean?·         Left parties are going to be the major loser. Even halving its share in Kerala and ten to fifteen seats loss in West Bengal will reduce the red brigade’s noise inside the parliament·         BJP will lose in its citadels like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan·         Congress is expected to face a people’s wrath in Delhi, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra ·         UPA partners like DMK in Tamil Nadu, RJD in Bihar, ·         The new gainers  will be BSP in Uttar Pradesh, TDP in Andhra Pradesh, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, Trinamool in West BengalThe State exchequer will have to spend Rs. 2400 crores to conduct the unexpected election to Lok Sabha midway. The common people’s mood is not in favour of the elections. None of the political parties are interested in facing the electorate with a political uncertainty or no issue to whip up the voters passions. According to a survey conducted by CSDS (Centre for the Study of Developing Societies), CNN-IBN and Indian Express, Congress is going to cross 200 mark if there is an election now. The BJP will lose 45 of its present tally to downslide to 133. The Left is projected to face the defeat in Kerala. The survey puts Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi as the popular leaders. As there is no credible opposition face the Congress is all set to gain from the mid term poll. It was carried out last week in 18 states interviewing 18,750 voters. 75% of these surveyed voters are from rural areas. As there is a lot of dissidence and tension in the opposition camp, Congress seems to be solid behind Sonia Gandhi’s leadership. The much worrying factors are inflation, terrorism and poor infrastructure development. The alternative power centre is clearly missing. Hence the voters are expected to choose Congress.   According to the survey conducted by Public Action among 35,000 respondents across 24 states and 3 union territories Congress is going to grab 175 seats, BJP 122 seats, Left 48 seats and nearly 200 seats are going to be snatched by other parties. Pre poll alliances and post poll dealings can form the structure of the new government. As a single largest party, Congress will get the invitation and once again sit in the driver’s seat of the central government. This outcome will deteriorate the existing condition in the Lok Sabha by bringing in more members from regional parties like TDP, AIADMK, JD (S), Shiv Sena, and others. There will be more adjournments, and house disruptions. If poll managers are expecting any miracle in their parties upsurge or improvement in the house functioning by improved realignment of allies they are wrong. It is better to leave it to the present bad condition than inviting worst scenario. May be another twenty months of the present government will produce clear winners and losers. Till then UPA government is good for Congress, its allies, Left parties, Opposition and the people.   Losing BJPMadhya Pradesh Rajasthan Chattisgarh KarnatakaLosing Congress                                                            Delhi Andra Pradesh                                                     Maharashtra                                             Haryana                                                   Tamil Nadu                                              BiharWinning CongressMadhya PradeshChattisgarhRajasthanKarnatakaLeft losing in KeralaParty position state-wise in 2004 Lok Sabha

  State No of seats Congress+  Allies BJP + Allies Left Others

Source: Compiled with inputs from Election Commission of India 

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